Climate evolution during the past 250 million years simulated by the Community Earth System Model

Abstract

<p>Global climates have undergone tremendous fluctuations during the past 250 million years, primarily driven by variations in tectonic dynamics, atmospheric greenhouse gases, and solar irradiance. Paleoclimate modeling has offered a feasible approach to investigating secular climate change for such a long span of time deep in the past. Nevertheless, global mean surface temperatures (GMSTs) simulated by previous studies scarcely depict the trend of past climate change. In this study, using the Community Earth System Model version 1.2.2 (CESM1.2.2), we present an ensemble of snapshot simulations during the past 250 million years based on the reconstructed GMSTs. An energy balance analysis is carried out to explore and quantitatively describe the causes of temperature change for the past 250 million years. We find that different levels of global mean warming for the past 250 million years compared with the pre-industrial period predominantly results from relative increase in greenhouse gas emissivity (12.2 °C), with the changing paleogeography (5.6 °C) and solar constant (3.0 °C) playing secondary roles. It is highlighted that the individual effect of heat transport convergence varies inconspicuously in spite of considerable changes of paleogeography and mean climate states during this time. The simulations are potentially valuable resources for extensive studies including climate dynamics analysis in geological timescales and paleoclimate-proxy intercomparison.</p>