Abstract
BackgroundA warmer climate has consequences for the timing of phenological events, as temperature is a key factor controlling plant development and flowering. In this study, we analyse the effects of the long-term climate change and an extreme weather event on the first flowering day (FFD) of five spring-flowering wild plant species in the United Kingdom. Citizen science data from the UK Woodland Trust were obtained for five species: Tussilago farfara (coltsfoot), Anemone nemorosa (wood anemone), Hyacinthoides non-scripta (bluebell), Cardamine pratensis (cuckooflower) and Alliaria petiolate (garlic mustard).ResultsOut of the 351 site-specific time series (≥ 15-years of FFD records), 74.6% showed significant negative response rates, i.e. earlier flowering in warmer years, ranging from − 5.6 to − 7.7 days °C−1. 23.7% of the series had non-significant negative response rates, and 1.7% had non-significant positive response rates. For cuckooflower, the response rate was increasingly more negative with decreasing latitudes. The winter of 2007 reflects an extreme weather event, about 2 °C warmer compared to 2006, where the 2006 winter temperatures were similar to the 1961–1990 baseline average. The FFD of each species was compared between 2006 and 2007. The results showed that the mean FFD of all species significantly advanced between 13 and 18 days during the extreme warmer winter of 2007, confirming that FFD is affected by temperature.ConclusionGiven that all species in the study significantly respond to ambient near-surface temperatures, they are suitable as climate-change indicators. However, the responses to a + 2 °C warmer winter were both more and less pronounced than expected from an analysis of ≥ 15-year time series. This may reflect non-linear responses, species-specific thresholds and cumulative temperature effects. It also indicates that knowledge on extreme weather events is needed for detailed projections of potential climate change effects.
Highlights
A warmer climate has consequences for the timing of phenological events, as temperature is a key factor controlling plant development and flowering
Citizen science data from the UK Woodland Trust were obtained for five species: Hyacinthoides non-scripta, Anemone nemorosa, Tussilago farfara, Alliaria petiolate, and Cardamine pratensis
The temperature response rate differed among the species, with wood anemone and garlic mustard having on average the smallest responses (− 5.6 days °C−1) and coltsfoot the largest (− 7.7 days °C−1) (Table 3)
Summary
A warmer climate has consequences for the timing of phenological events, as temperature is a key factor controlling plant development and flowering. We analyse the effects of the long-term climate change and an extreme weather event on the first flowering day (FFD) of five spring-flowering wild plant species in the United Kingdom. The timing of biological events and recurring plant and animal life cycle stages are linked to abiotic environmental factors [3], with many phenotypical characteristics being affected by temperature and precipitation [4,5,6,7,8,9]. Information on the species-specific temperature-dependent response may feed into climate change models, e.g. earth system and terrestrial ecosystem models that incorporate basic phenological factors [14], or be used to develop methods that control invasive species such as garlic mustard [15]. The temperature response rate can be influenced by local climatic conditions and the length of the forcing period [19]
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