Abstract
Pest control is one of the areas in which population dynamic theory has been successfully applied to solve practical problems. However, the links between population dynamic theory and model construction have been less emphasized in the management and control of weed populations. Most management models of weed population dynamics have emphasized the role of the endogenous process, but the role of exogenous variables such as climate have been ignored in the study of weed populations and their management. Here, we use long-term data (22 years) on two annual weed species from a locality in Central Spain to determine the importance of endogenous and exogenous processes (local and large-scale climate factors). Our modeling study determined two different feedback structures and climate effects in the two weed species analyzed. While Descurainia sophia exhibited a second-order feedback and low climate influence, Veronica hederifolia was characterized by a first-order feedback structure and important effects from temperature and rainfall. Our results strongly suggest the importance of theoretical population dynamics in understanding plant population systems. Moreover, the use of this approach, discerning between the effect of exogenous and endogenous factors, can be fundamental to applying weed management practices in agricultural systems and to controlling invasive weedy species. This is a radical change from most approaches currently used to guide weed and invasive weedy species managements.
Highlights
Population dynamics theory has been maturing during the last decades and nowadays we can explain the apparently complex numerical fluctuations exhibited by natural populations by means of a few general principles or laws [1,2,3,4]
We focus on diagnosis and modeling tools from population-dynamics theory to analyze these long-term data and to determine the role of the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) and local weather as exogenous factors influencing weed dynamics
The numerical fluctuation of D. sophia was characterized by regular periodic oscillations and a positive trend (Figure 1a)
Summary
Population dynamics theory has been maturing during the last decades and nowadays we can explain the apparently complex numerical fluctuations exhibited by natural populations by means of a few general principles or laws [1,2,3,4]. One of the most important consequences of the existence of laws in population ecology is that models used to explain and predict ecological populations are based on these general principles [4,5]. It is likely that societal demands for practical applications of ecological theory will increase in the near future. To be successful, such applications will need to be based upon models that have proven their worth through empirical verification of their predictions [7]
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