Climate-driven trends in agricultural water requirement: an ERA5-based assessment at daily scale over 50 years

Abstract

The impact of climate variability on the water requirements of crops is a key issue in a globalized world with unprecedented population and unevenly distributed water resources. Changes of hydro-climatic forcings may have significant impacts on water resources use, considering the possible effects on irrigation requirements and crop water stress. In this work, a comprehensive estimation of crop water requirements over the 1970–2019 period is presented, considering 26 main agricultural products over a 5 arcmin resolution global grid. The assessment is based on a daily-scale hydrological model considering rainfed and irrigated scenarios, driven by hydro-climatic forcings derived from ERA5, the most recent climate reanalysis product within the Climate Change Service of the Copernicus Programme. Results show the heterogeneous impact of climate variability on harvested areas of the world, quantified by water stressed days and irrigation requirement rates. Increases of irrigation requirement rates were found on more than 60% of irrigated lands, especially in regions like South Europe, North-East China, West US, Brazil and Australia, where the mean rate increased more than 100 mm yr−1 from 1970s to 2010s. The daily analysis of water requirements shows that crops require significantly more days of irrigation per season, especially in Europe, Africa and South-East Asia. Statistically significant trends of water stress duration were found over 38% of rainfed croplands, while only 6% of croplands has been affected by negative trends and shorter stress duration, mainly in India, Malaysia, North Europe and coastal regions of central western Africa.