Climate‐driven stream‐flow impacts on bull trout metapopulation dynamics revealed by quantitative assessment of 22 years of tag–recapture data

Abstract

Abstract Climate change has altered annual hydrologic cycles globally. Where stream flows are dominated by snow melt in western North America, climate change has resulted in peak flows that occur earlier in the runoff season and reduced flows during the non‐runoff season. Such changes can negatively affect the reproduction success and first‐year survival of stream‐dependent, autumn‐spawning salmonid fishes. We annually sampled bull trout (Salvelinus confluentus Suckley) populations in the St. Mary River catchment in north‐central Montana, U.S.A. Bull trout (≥ age 3; n = 3,502) electrofished from six creeks during 1998–2018 were given passive integrated transponder tags and 739 (21.1%) of those fish were recaptured through 2019 (tag loss c. 4.5%). We used tag–recapture data to (1) determine the spatial extent of the bull trout metapopulation; (2) fit a Bayesian Jolly–Seber model to identify the temporal trends in the sizes, finite growth rates (λ), and apparent survival and detection probabilities of the three main populations; and (3) assess the statistical associations between λ and flow. Bull trout movements among creeks defined the metapopulation's almost catchment‐wide spatial extent. Statistical correlations between λ and flow were clumped in the month × flow variable space at flow lags of 3–7 years, which corresponded with production of the dominant age classes in our tagged populations. Positive correlations occurred during June–September (the bull trout spawning season) and negative correlations during October–May (the embryo‐incubation period). Declining spawning‐season flow could have degraded bull trout spawning habitat, whereas increasing incubation‐period flow could have physically disturbed embryos affecting their survival. This study revealed associations between bull trout population dynamics and climate change as indexed by stream flow. Although the spawning habitats of these bull trout are protected within Glacier National Park and the occurrence of multiple local populations supports metapopulation persistence, that persistence is diminished because flow‐regime change has a strong negative influence on each population. Given the region's apparent climate trajectory, further decline in the bull trout metapopulation is anticipated.