Abstract
The koala's Phascolarctos cinereus distribution is currently restricted to eastern and south‐eastern Australia. However, fossil records dating from 70 ± 4 ka (ka = 103 yr) from south‐western Australia and the Nullarbor Plain are evidence of subpopulation extinctions in the southwest at least after the Last Interglacial (~128–116 ka). We hypothesize that koala sub‐population extinctions resulted from the eastward retraction of the koala's main browse species in response to unsuitable climatic conditions. We further posit a general reduction in the distribution of main koala‐browse trees in the near future in response climate change. We modelled 60 koala‐browse species and constructed a set of correlative species distribution models for five time periods: Last Interglacial (~128–116 ka), Last Glacial Maximum (~23–19 ka), Mid‐Holocene (~7–5 ka), present (interpolations of observed data, representative of 1960–1990), and 2070. We based our projections on five hindcasts and one forecast of climatic variables extracted from WorldClim based on two general circulation models (considering the most pessimistic scenario of high greenhouse‐gas emissions) and topsoil clay fraction. We used 17 dates of koala fossil specimens identified as reliable from 70 (± 4) to 535 (± 49) ka, with the last appearance of koalas at 70 ka in the southwest. The main simulated koala‐browse species were at their greatest modelled extent of suitability during the Last Glacial Maximum, with the greatest loss of koala habitat occurring between the Mid‐Holocene and the present. We predict a similar habitat loss between the present and 2070. The spatial patterns of habitat change support our hypothesis that koala extinctions in the southwest, Nullarbor Plain and central South Australia resulted from the eastward retraction of the dominant koala‐browse species in response to long‐term climate changes. Future climate patterns will likely increase the extinction risk of koalas in their remaining eastern ranges.
Highlights
The predicted impacts of anthropogenic climate disruption on global biodiversity include shifts in the ranges of species and the acceleration of extinctions (Parmesan and Yohe 2003, Bellard et al 2012, Urban 2015, Strona and Bradshaw 2018)
We revealed a highly variable response of individual tree species to the spatially explicit changes in climate conditions, but we were able to determine gross shifts in the likely extents of overall koala habitat during this interval (Fig. 4, Supplementary material Appendix 1 Fig. A2)
By comparing the extent of past and present gains and losses of these 60 species, we found that overall gains exceeded losses between the Last Interglacial and the Last Glacial Maximum, while all species had substantial losses of suitable habitat between the Last Glacial Maximum and the Mid-Holocene, and between the Mid-Holocene and the present (Fig. 4, Supplementary material Appendix 1 Fig. A2, Table A5)
Summary
The predicted impacts of anthropogenic climate disruption on global biodiversity include shifts in the ranges of species and the acceleration of extinctions (Parmesan and Yohe 2003, Bellard et al 2012, Urban 2015, Strona and Bradshaw 2018). Despite many potential behavioural, physiological and evolutionary adaptations (e.g. adaptation to different browse species, or physiological shift of thermal tolerances) and range shifts occurring, these will not be sufficient to offset overall population declines in many species, because rapid, accumulated changes in ecosystems (e.g. habitat loss, water and air pollution, climate change, ultraviolet light exposure, invasive species, disease) generally outpace adaptation (Parmesan 2006). Lunney et al (2014) documented a long-term shrinkage in the distribution of koalas across the Eden region (~7000 km2) in south-eastern New South Wales due to climate change, from drought and rising temperatures
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