Climate-driven shifts in growth and maturity induce changes to the population and fishery dynamics of a high-value crustacean

Abstract

Climate change is fueling unprecedented warming in marine environments. Crustaceans demonstrate strong physiological responses to rising temperatures including smaller molt increments, more frequent molting, and decreased size-at-maturity (SAM). Despite the potential for these changes to affect population and fisheries dynamics, there is limited research quantifying potential impacts. This is concerning, as crustacean fisheries are becoming increasingly important globally. Using an individual-based model for the valuable American lobster (Homarus americanus) fishery in the Gulf of Maine (GOM), we sought to address pressing questions about how climate-driven changes to growth and maturity could impact the population and fishery dynamics. To do so, we used counterfactual simulations informed by the literature and an expert survey to quantify the effects of smaller molt increments, increased molting, and decreased SAM on lobster spawning stock biomass (SSB) and landings. We found that all three changes to life history, combined, increased the SSB and landings relative to the base case. Notably, SSB in the terminal year of the time-series was 278.3%, 505.1%, and 748.5% greater than the base case under small, moderate, and extreme changes, respectively, to life history. However, when molt increment size and molting probability were changed but SAM was not, SSB and landings decreased relative to the base case, emphasizing the importance of SAM as a driver of productivity. Overall, these findings indicate that climate-driven changes to growth and maturity may favorably impact the population and fishery dynamics of lobster, contributing to sustained fishery yield in the GOM. This study emphasizes the utility of simulating the effects of climate-forced life history change for informing climate-ready fisheries management. Future work should explore the effects of other climate-driven life history changes alongside alternative management strategies for lobster and other crustaceans.