Climate-driven scrub typhus incidence dynamics in South China: A time-series study

Abstract

Background: Scrub typhus (ST) is a climate-sensitive infectious disease. However, the nonlinear relationship between important meteorological factors and ST incidence is not clear. The present study identified the quantitative relationship between ST incidence and meteorological factors in southern China.Methods: The weekly number of ST cases and simultaneous meteorological variables in central Guangdong Province from 2006 to 2018 were obtained from the National Notifiable Infectious Disease Reporting Information System and the Meteorological Data Sharing Service System, respectively. A quasi-Poisson generalized additive model combined with a distributed lag nonlinear model (DLNM) was constructed to analyze the lag-exposure-response relationship between meteorological factors and the incidence of ST.Results: A total of 18,415 ST cases were reported in the study area. The estimated effects of meteorological factors on ST incidence were nonlinear and exhibited obvious lag characteristics. A J-shaped nonlinear association was identified between weekly mean temperature and ST incidence. A reversed U-shaped nonlinear association was noted between weekly mean relative humidity and ST incidence. The risk of ST incidence increased when the temperature ranged from 24°C to 28°C, the relative humidity was between 78% and 82%, or the precipitation was between 50 mm and 150 mm, using the medians as references. For high temperatures (75th percentile of temperature), the highest relative risk (RR) was 1.18 (95% CI: 1.10–1.27), with a lag effect that lasted 5 weeks. High relative humidity (75th percentile of relative humidity) and high precipitation (75th percentile of precipitation) could also increase the risk of ST.Conclusion: This study demonstrated the nonlinear relationship and the significant positive lag effects of temperature, relative humidity, and precipitation on the incidence of ST. Between particular thresholds, temperature, humidity, and levels of precipitation increased the risk of ST. These findings suggest that relevant government departments should address climate change and develop a meteorological conditions-depend strategy for ST prevention and control.