Climate-coastal fisheries relationships and their spatial variation in Queensland, Australia

Abstract

The notion that climate change may impact coastal fish production suggests a need to understand how climate variables may influence fish catch on a broad scale. The natural variability of freshwater flows, as a result of variable rainfall, has been shown to affect catch, as low levels reduce nutrient input, physical cues for reproduction, and access to nursery habitats. We used fish catch data, coastal sea surface temperature (SST), rainfall and the Southern Oscillation Index (SOI) from 1988 to 2004 for eight distinct climatic regions along the coast of Queensland, Australia, to investigate the relationships between catch and climate parameters and variation between regions. Sea surface temperatures and rainfall were positively correlated with the catch of seven coastal commercial fisheries species but the relationship varied strongly between species and regions, thus indicating possible differences between fisheries stocks in responding to future changes in temperature and rainfall. A forward stepwise regression model that included a measure of rainfall, SST and SOI explained between 30% and 70% of the variance in catch adjusted for effort for the same year for barramundi ( Lates calcarifer), mud crabs ( Scylla serrata), mullet (e.g. Mugil cephalus), flathead (e.g. Platycephalus fuscus), whiting ( Sillago spp.), tiger prawns ( Penaeus monodon, P. semisulcatus) and endeavour prawns ( Metapenaeus endeavouri, M. ensis). Given that the influence of these climate parameters varies with geographic regions, future catch prediction models should incorporate geographic variation of the relationship between fish catch and climate.