Climate Changes in the 21st Century over the Asia-Pacific Region Simulated by the NCAR CSM and PCM

Abstract

The Climate System Model (CSM) and the Parallel Climate Model (PCM), two coupled global climate models without flux adjustments recently developed at NCAR, were used to simulate the 20th century climate using historical greenhouse gas and sulfate aerosol forcing. These simulations were extended through the 21st century under two newly developed scenarios, a business-as-usual case (BAU, CO2 ≈ 710 ppmv in 2100) and a CO2 stabilization case (STA550, CO2 ≈ 540 ppmv in 2100). The simulated changes in temperature, precipitation, and soil moisture over the Asia-Pacific region (10°–60°N, 55°–155°E) are analyzed, with a focus on the East Asian summer monsoon rainfall and climate changes over the upper reaches of the Yangtze River. Under the BAU scenario, both the models produce surface warming of about 3–5°C in winter and 2–3°C in summer over most Asia. Under the STA550 scenario, the warming is reduced by 0.5–I.0°C in winter and by 0.5°C in summer. The warming is fairly uniform at the low latitudes and does not induce significant changes in the zonal mean Hadley circulation over the Asia-Pacific domain. While the regional precipitation changes from single CSM integrations are noisy, the PCM ensemble mean precipitation shows 10%–30% increases north of ~ 30°N and ~ 10% decreases south of ~ 30°N over the Asia-Pacific region in winter and 10%–20% increases in summer precipitation over most of the region. Soil moisture changes are small over most Asia. The CSM single simulation suggests a 30% increase in river runoff into the Three Gorges Dam, but the PCM ensemble simulations show small changes in the runoff.