Climate changes could jeopardize a main source of livelihood in Africa’s drylands

Abstract

Climate change in Africa poses a serious threat to many ecosystems and livelihoods, making them vulnerable to climate-related risks. Gum and resin bearing tree species as the genus Boswellia are the main economic and livelihood sources in most dryland areas of Africa. We use species distribution models to find critical sites where Boswellia species may no longer occur in the future. Our models identify potential regions that could benefit from their cultivation and promote conservation efforts for the species to thrive. We projected models to new CMIP6 scenarios and different dispersal profiles. Despite the prevailing aridity already imposed on the species, Boswellia distribution shows a dramatic reduction. Future investments in Boswellia restoration and strategies to promote sustainable extraction of resources may be key to sustain populations and Boswellia dominated forests in many parts of the African continent.