Climate changes and food policies: economic pathology

Abstract

The purpose of this study is to assess the implicit effects of climate change on the food industry by measuring post and pre-linkage with the agricultural sector and to further investigate the effects of alterations in food components (agriculture and livestock) in two regional, agro-ecological zones, namely the Caspian Sea and Central Iran, under two scenarios of climate change (optimistic and pessimistic). As maintained by the findings from analysis of changes in agriculture and livestock subdivisions under different climate scenarios, the highest amount of change in cultivated areas for different scenarios mainly gravitate towards grain products, sugar beets, and oily seeds. The total amount of imported agricultural and livestock products changed as a result of climate change, encompassing decreases of about 8.4 percent and increases of near 29.3 percent. The consumers’ portion of the total damages from economic interests resulting from climate change was 55 percent for the optimistic scenario and 86 percent in the pessimistic case. The producers’ portion of economic damages was 16 percent in the pessimistic scenario and 9 percent in the optimistic. The other economic sectors (indirect effect of climate change) were estimated at 24 percent in the pessimistic scenario to 13 percent in the optimistic case. Additionally, analysis of different scenarios (from optimistic to pessimistic) indicated a low status of welfare among consumers. Contrarily, welfare status of producers appeared to improve due to increases in asking price.