Climate change will reduce the potential distribution ranges of Colombia’s most valuable pollinators

Abstract

Plants and pollinators might respond differently to changes in climate, and thus plant-pollinator relationships are vulnerable to spatial, temporal, morphological and recognition mismatches. Although the effects of climate change on pollinators and pollination services are expected to be greater in the tropics than in other latitudes, these effects remain poorly documented. Herein, we assessed the spatial distribution of nine species (of five genera) of Colombian stingless bees used in meliponiculture under present and future climate scenarios. Stingless bees are major pollinators in tropical areas and their use in managed pollination, to produce high-value honey, and as recreation is increasingly popular worldwide. Our models indicate that most species of stingless bees exhibit restricted distributions to ecosystems within the continental natural regions of Colombia. Using intermediate (RCP 4.5) and high (RCP 8.5) greenhouse gas emission scenarios, our models predict that seven of the nine species would experience a significant reduction in their climatically suitable areas, and thus will likely influence agriculture and rural livelihoods. These results are critical to developing new conservation policies and climate adaptation strategies that include restrictions in the relocation of colonies, as well as monitoring programs that help beekeepers to shift to other species in areas where our models predicted a likely reduction or loss of habitat suitability.