Abstract
Climate change vulnerability assessments are commonly used to identify species at risk from global climate change, but the wide range of methodologies available makes it difficult for end users, such as conservation practitioners or policymakers, to decide which method to use as a basis for decision-making. In this study, we evaluate whether different assessments consistently assign species to the same risk categories and whether any of the existing methodologies perform well at identifying climate-threatened species. We compare the outputs of 12 climate change vulnerability assessment methodologies, using both real and simulated species, and validate the methods using historic data for British birds and butterflies (i.e. using historical data to assign risks and more recent data for validation). Our results show that the different vulnerability assessment methods are not consistent with one another; different risk categories are assigned for both the real and simulated sets of species. Validation of the different vulnerability assessments suggests that methods incorporating historic trend data into the assessment perform best at predicting distribution trends in subsequent time periods. This study demonstrates that climate change vulnerability assessments should not be used interchangeably due to the poor overall agreement between methods when considering the same species. The results of our validation provide more support for the use of trend-based rather than purely trait-based approaches, although further validation will be required as data become available.
Highlights
Standardized methods of risk assessment are important tools for prioritizing adaptive strategies to counter the impacts of climate change, including conservation action for species most likely to face extinction
It has recently been suggested that this process does not adequately identify potential future risk, such as that posed by climate change, as it focuses more on the symptoms of declines than on the underlying causes (Akßcakaya, Butchart, Watson, & Pearson, 2014)
These concerns have led to the parallel development of a number of risk assessment frameworks (Pacifici et al, 2015), each of which aims to quantify the vulnerability or extinction risk of a species due to climate change
Summary
Standardized methods of risk assessment are important tools for prioritizing adaptive strategies to counter the impacts of climate change, including conservation action for species most likely to face extinction. Trend-based frameworks (Pearce-Higgins, Ausden, Beale, Oliver, & Crick, 2015; Thomas et al, 2011; Trivin~o, Cabeza, Thuiller, Hickler, & Araujo, 2013) may recognize the importance of traits in determining risk, but focus primarily on abundance and distribution changes (observed and projected), supplemented by some trait information to inform assessors of the likelihood that projected trends will be realized The merit of this approach is that it focuses on the primary cause of conservation concern (population and distribution decline, in the spirit of IUCN Red Listing), and sidesteps the need to identify every causal trait, or how these traits combine to determine population responses to climate change. Framework Gardali et al, 2012; Young et al, 2012; Moyle et al, 2013; Garnett et al, 2013; Thomas et al, 2011; Pearce-Higgins et al, 2015; Trivin~o et al, 2013; Chin et al, 2010; Foden et al, 2013; Barrows et al, 2014; Heikkinen et al, 2010; Arribas et al, 2012
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