Climate change vulnerability assessment for selected agricultural responses at Yarmouk River Basin Area, Jordan

Abstract

Although climate change impacts on the agricultural sector were investigated intensively, however, vulnerability assessments and adaptation planning at the community level are still limited. This study aimed at providing a comprehensive climate change vulnerability assessment of four agriculture responses of barley production, wheat production, olive trees production, and goats’ mortality at the Yarmouk River Basin in northern Jordan using a qualitative-quantitative scoring method based on actual estimations of exposure, sensitivity, and adaptive capacity with an emphasis on community engagement. Thirty-year temporal variability (1982–2012) analysis using Kendall test and Pearson correlation test for three climatic variables (maximum and minimum air temperature, and annual rainfall) indicates high significant exposure level of increasing air temperature trends by rates of 0.07 °C/year and 0.06 °C/year for maximum and minimum temperature, respectively, and insignificant annual rainfall reductions ranging spatially from 2.1 mm/year at Irbid governorate to 2.9 mm/year at Mafraq Governorate. Agriculture responses sensitivity assessment indicates goats’ mortality followed by olive production are moderately correlated with climate variables (r ranges from 0.32 to 0.57). The adaptive capacity assessment highlights the presence of low to moderate financial, institutional, political enforcement, technology implementation, and awareness of the farmers to climate change impacts and potential adaptation measures that subjected the study area to be ranked as moderately to highly vulnerable to climate change impacts. Multi-criteria decision analysis suggests that irrigation water-related adaptation measures are listed within top priorities. This paper addresses the qualitative-quantitative vulnerability assessment approach at the local rural level and through participatory engagements to be effective for improving the vulnerable adaptive capacities and suggesting further recommendations to be mainstreamed urgently with governmental strategies and action plans.