Abstract
The Zambezi Basin has one of the most variable climates in the world. Extreme floods and droughts are the typical feature of its historic flow record. The coefficient of variation of annual flow ranges from 0.40 in the Upper Zambezi to 0.47 in the Lower Zambezi. This chapter presents an evaluation of the vulnerabilities and risks associated with observed and projected climate change in the Zambezi Basin. It focuses on water resources development, agriculture and ecosystem services that sustain human livelihoods and biodiversity. The chapter deals with a review of long-term cycles of droughts and floods, under natural and regulated conditions. Climate change will have a profound effect upon many aspects of water resources development, including hydropower and water supply, and will exacerbate regional and transboundary challenges in water management. Climate change is expected to reduce groundwater recharge, and resulting groundwater-fed baseflows, that contribute to stable year-round hydropower production.
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