Abstract
Recent vulnerability assessments, conducted in diverse regions in the northwestern United States, indicate that many commonalities exist with respect to projected vulnerabilities to climate change. Dry forests are projected to have significant changes in distribution and abundance of species, partially in response to higher temperature and lower soil moisture, but mostly in response to projected increases in extreme events and disturbances—drought, wildfire, and insect outbreaks. Wildfire and mountain pine beetles have caused extensive mortality across millions of hectares in this region during the past decade, and wildfire area burned is projected to increase 200%–300% by mid-21st century. Science–management partnerships associated with recent assessments have identified an extensive list of adaptation options, including both strategies (general planning) and tactics (on-the-ground projects). Most of the options focus on increasing resilience to disturbances and on reducing current stressors to resource conditions. Adaptation options are generally similar across the biogeographically diverse region covered by assessments, suggesting that there may be a limit on the number of feasible responses to climate change. Federal agencies in the northwestern United States are now using these assessments and adaptation approaches to inform sustainable resource management and planning, mostly through fine tuning of existing practices and policies.
Highlights
Climate change will have both direct and indirect effects on forest vegetation in western NorthAmerica
Assessments assessments encompassed a diverse set including of resources, including water, fisheries, wildlife, recreation, encompassed a diverse set of resources, water, fisheries, wildlife, recreation, infrastructure, infrastructure, and ecosystem services (e.g., carbon storage,and timber production, andfocus cultural and ecosystem services, we here heritage), we focus here vegetation on assessments of forest vegetation andadaptation disturbanceoptions
Key vulnerabilities of vegetation to climate change are generally stratified by elevation
Summary
Climate change will have both direct and indirect effects on forest vegetation in western NorthAmerica. Climate change will have both direct and indirect effects on forest vegetation in western North. Understanding potential shifts in local vegetation is critical for land managers to develop adaptive strategies and minimize the negative effects of climate change on ecosystems and the services they provide [3]. Development of local to regional-scale vulnerability assessments and adaptation plans in western North America has been slow and uneven [4,5]. Progress in development of finer-scale assessments has largely been made through science–management partnerships [6,7,8,9,10,11]. Through iterative exchange of information, these partnerships help to identify key climate change vulnerabilities and develop adaptation strategies and tactics based on those vulnerabilities [11]
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