Climate change: Variabilities, vulnerabilities and adaptation analysis - A case of seven cities located in seven countries of Central Africa

Abstract

This research aimed to estimate the cooling energy demand of residential buildings on three scale time (past, present and future) to study the vulnerability degree of climate change on human health, agriculture and water resources, followed by suggesting adjustment strategies from outdoor climate variation. The daily data obtained from year 1950 to 2005 were used as reference for forecasting. The simulations and projections were performed with five general circulation model GCMs (CGCM3, CNRM-CM3, GFDL CM2.0, HadCM3 and PCM) models and five scenarios (RCP8.5, RCP4.5, A2, A1B, B1) regarding seven countries of the Central Africa to reveal that the climate change effects were significant in the study region. The results showed that, the mean monthly cooling energy demand in household is estimated to be 123.3 degree days (DDs) by 2046 and 192.4 DDs by 2100. The highest energy value demand was recorded in Chad. The average annual expenditure on health was estimated from US$520/capita in Gabon. According to scenarios RCP4.5 and RCP8.5, the mean monthly cooling energy demand in residential buildings will increase to 81.6% and 167.3%, respectively, by 2100, as compared to that in 2016 in the Central African countries. The impacts of climate change are not still the most important in the regions with strong CO2 emission.