Climate change threatens the future of rain forest ringtail possums by 2050

Abstract

AbstractAimThe increasing frequency and intensity of extreme weather escalate the pressure of global warming on biodiversity. Globally, synergistic effects of multiple components of climate change have driven local extinctions and community collapses, raising concern about the irreversible deterioration of ecosystems. Here, we disentangle the pressure of increasing warming and frequency of extreme heatwaves on the population dynamics of tropical ringtail possums (family: Pseudocheiridae).LocationThe Australian Wet Tropics World Heritage Area.MethodRingtail possums' population dynamics were estimated between 1992 and 2021 using a hierarchical population model that explicitly described the state process and accounted for imperfect detection. Under our model, we propagated the estimated mechanisms governing the system by forecasting ringtails' population dynamics between 2022 and 2050. Derived from this process, we calculated the probability of absolute and quasi‐extinction using different population viability thresholds.ResultsWe find a strong negative effect of climate change on population dynamics, particularly extreme heatwaves, resulting in a rapid and severe decline in ringtails' population size in the last three decades.Main ConclusionsForecasted increases in temperature and heatwaves threaten the collapse of rain forest ringtail possums by 2050, with populations falling below viability thresholds within three decades.