Abstract
The evidence of climate changes has increased the demand for biofuel such as the ethanol from sugarcane, which has major comparative advantages in economic and environmental terms in relation to other biofuel sources. The sugarcane production in the State of Sao Paulo is highly influenced by the soil water availability, which is the main factor causing inter-annual yield variability. With the expected climate change, the crop water balance in the sugarcane production regions may be affected, which will also bring consequences for crop production. Based on that, the objective of this study was to assess the impacts of different climate changes scenarios on potential (ETP) and actual (ETA) evapotranspiration, as well as on water deficit (WD) and water surplus (WS) for four sugarcane production regions in the state of Sao Paulo, Brazil. For that, twelve climate changes scenarios, with increasing temperatures and rainfall variation, were considered for the years of 2030, 2060 and 2090, based on 2007 IPCC's report. The results indicated that ETP will increase substantially as a function of higher air temperatures projected for the future scenarios. However, for ETA the elevation will not be so intense due to the variations projected for the rainfall scenarios. In general, the expectation is the reduction of the soil water availability in all locations by 2090, with substantial increase in the WD, around 550, 650, 530 e 720 mm for the worst scenario in relation to the present conditions, respectively for Aracatuba, Assis, Jaboticabal and Piracicaba.
Highlights
The projections of global climate change promoted by the anthropic action, having as consequence the increasing greenhouse effect, is becoming more and more accepted by the scientific and agricultural communities around the world (Marengo, 2008)
Based on the results of Marks et al (1993), Medeiros (2003) and Villani et al (2011), an increase in air temperature will lead to a higher evapotranspiration which in a non-changing rainfall regime or in a scenario of less rainfall will promote an increase in the water deficit for plants and, as consequence, a decrease in crop yield by a reduced evapotranspiration
The results presented in this study in terms of water deficit (WD) and water surplus (WS) are the average of the results from the water balance processed for each year of the data series, representing a more comprehensive way to determine the actual average of these variables, as considered by Gouvêa et al (2009)
Summary
The projections of global climate change promoted by the anthropic action, having as consequence the increasing greenhouse effect, is becoming more and more accepted by the scientific and agricultural communities around the world (Marengo, 2008). In the state of São Paulo, the rainfall inter-annual variability is the main cause of sugarcane yield fluctuation, since it affects the soil water balance and, the water availability for plants. Results from the study carried out by Liberato and Brito (2010) showed that the climate changes projected for Occidental Amazon will result in a drier climate, with reduction in the soil water availability In agriculture, such reduction associated with temperature changes will affect plant phenology, crops geographic distribution (crop zoning) and crop yield (Crimmins et al, 2011; Li et al, 2011; Pérez and Sierra, 2012)
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