Climate Change Scenarios Analysis in Coastal Region of Thailand

Abstract

Wang, Y.; He, B.; Herath, S.; Basnayake, S. and Huang, W., 2014. Climate change scenarios analysis in coastal region of Thailand.The impact of climate change is estimated to be particularly severe in many developing countries, including the coastal zones prone to flooding and drought. As a coastal region, Thailand has been affected by climate change significantly in terms of temperature and rainfall distribution change. In this study, a downscaling study was carried out to identify some climate-related planning parameters for the representative cities in Thailand using the regional climate model. Results indicated that in the study area around the Hat Yai the near future atmosphere temperature will increase about 1 °C to 1.5 °C compared to the present condition. The minimum annual temperature will increase about 0.8 degree from 23 °C to 23.8 °C. It is ranging between 20.8 °C–25 °C. The maximum annual temperature in Hat Yai will increase about 1 degree from 32.6 °C to 33.6 °C. The mean annual temperature will increase about 1 degree from 27.8 °C to 28.8 °C. The temperature will increase largely in summer and rainy season in the future. The near future rainfall is projected to increase in most of seasons, especially during the rainy season which will bring more risk for flood disaster. Furthermore, rainfall pattern and distribution will be also changed in the near future in Songkhla, with more rain to be expected in rainy season.