Climate change scenario planning: A model for the integration of science and management in environmental decision-making

Abstract

This qualitative case study presents an in-depth evaluation of the scenario planning process, and an exploration of factors influencing its use as an environmental decision making model. The authors explore how decision-makers and scientists within the National Park Service (NPS) used scenario planning to negotiate the social and scientific uncertainty associated with climate change through the lens of systems innovation theory and organizational resilience. Key factors influencing the modeling process included: (1) challenging assumptions, (2) bounding scenarios, (3) validating science and scenarios, and (4) negotiating the degree of science certainty about climate change necessary for adaptive natural resource management. Ultimately, the scenario planning process served as more than a decision making model; it encouraged exploratory dialogue about critical uncertainties and risks that the NPS managers may face in an era of rapid climate change. It is through such dialogue that organizational resilience is nurtured and innovations are adopted and institutionalized for a more adept agency response to high risk and high uncertainty changes such as climate change effects on a protected area's landscape.