Climate change risks pushing one-third of global food production outside the safe climatic space

Matti Kummu,Matias Heino,Maija Taka,Olli Varis,Daniel Viviroli

doi:10.1016/j.oneear.2021.04.017

Matti Kummu, Matias Heino + Show 3 more

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https://doi.org/10.1016/j.oneear.2021.04.017

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Journal: One Earth	Publication Date: May 1, 2021
Citations: 45	License type: cc-by

Affiliation: University of Zurich, Aalto University

Abstract

SummaryFood production on our planet is dominantly based on agricultural practices developed during stable Holocene climatic conditions. Although it is widely accepted that climate change perturbs these conditions, no systematic understanding exists on where and how the major risks for entering unprecedented conditions may occur. Here, we address this gap by introducing the concept of safe climatic space (SCS), which incorporates the decisive climatic factors of agricultural production: precipitation, temperature, and aridity. We show that a rapid and unhalted growth of greenhouse gas emissions (SSP5–8.5) could force 31% of the global food crop and 34% of livestock production beyond the SCS by 2081–2100. The most vulnerable areas are South and Southeast Asia and Africa's Sudano-Sahelian Zone, which have low resilience to cope with these changes. Our results underpin the importance of committing to a low-emissions scenario (SSP1–2.6), whereupon the extent of food production facing unprecedented conditions would be a fraction.

Highlights

Ecosystems and human societies have adapted to relatively stable Holocene climate conditions over several millennia.[1,2] The majority of food production is based on agricultural practices developed for these conditions.[2,3] There are already signs that the recent, accelerating global environmental change is affecting many important crops throughout the planet.[4,5] Often the change is manifested in several indicators
Largest changes in polar regions, mountains, and the Sahel We estimated the Holdridge life zone (HLZ) for baseline conditions (1970–2000) as well as for future conditions (2021–2040, 2041–2060, 2061– 2080, and 2081–2100; note that most of the results are presented only for the last time step) under two climate change scenarios on both extremes under the most recent Climate Model Intercomparison Project phase 6 (CMIP6) framework
We used spatially high-resolution (5 arc-min, or $10 km at the equator) data from eight global circulation models (GCMs), downscaled and bias corrected by WorldClim[35]

Summary

Introduction

Ecosystems and human societies have adapted to relatively stable Holocene climate conditions over several millennia.[1,2] The majority of food production is based on agricultural practices developed for these conditions.[2,3] There are already signs that the recent, accelerating global environmental change is affecting many important crops throughout the planet.[4,5] Often the change is manifested in several indicators. These key parameters directly affect societies and their life-sustaining activities such as food production[7,8] and maintaining water availability.[9]

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