Abstract

The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) assessment of major risks for African agriculture and food security caused by climate change during coming decades is confirmed by a review of more recent climate change impact assessments (14 quantitative, six qualitative). Projected impacts relative to current production levels range from -100% to +168% in econometric, from -84% to +62% in process-based, and from -57% to +30% in statistical assessments. Despite large uncertainty, there are several robust conclusions from published literature for policy makers and research agendas: agriculture everywhere in Africa runs some risk to be negatively affected by climate change; existing cropping systems and infrastructure will have to change to meet future demand. With respect to growing population and the threat of negative climate change impacts, science will now have to show if and how agricultural production in Africa can be significantly improved.

Highlights

  • The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) assessment of major risks for African agriculture and food security caused by climate change during coming decades is confirmed by a review of more recent climate change impact assessments (14 quantitative, six qualitative)

  • We review newer studies on climate change and African agriculture to see whether the overall IPCC assessment is still supported by recent scientific findings and if it can be made more informative

  • There is still no comprehensive continent-wide assessment for all major cropping systems in Africa, the new results show more clearly how the current production systems might be impacted in regionally differing ways: some regions are at risk for severe reduction or even total loss of agricultural production [6], whereas others could benefit from improved production conditions as a result of projected increases in precipitation

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Summary

Introduction

The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) assessment of major risks for African agriculture and food security caused by climate change during coming decades is confirmed by a review of more recent climate change impact assessments (14 quantitative, six qualitative). We review newer studies on climate change and African agriculture to see whether the overall IPCC assessment is still supported by recent scientific findings and if it can be made more informative.

Results
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