Abstract
Variations in forest net primary productivity (NPP) reflects the combined effects of key climate variables on ecosystem structure and function, especially on the carbon cycle. We performed risk analysis indicated by the magnitude of future negative anomalies in NPP in comparison with the natural interannual variability to investigate the impact of future climatic projections on forests in China. Results from the multi-model ensemble showed that climate change risk of decreases in forest NPP would be more significant in higher emission scenario in China. Under relatively low emission scenarios, the total area of risk was predicted to decline, while for RCP8.5, it was predicted to first decrease and then increase after the middle of 21st century. The rapid temperature increases predicted under the RCP8.5 scenario would be probably unfavorable for forest vegetation growth in the long term. High-level risk area was likely to increase except RCP2.6. The percentage area at high risk was predicted to increase from 5.39% (2021–2050) to 27.62% (2071–2099) under RCP8.5. Climate change risk to forests was mostly concentrated in southern subtropical and tropical regions, generally significant under high emission scenario of RCP8.5, which was mainly attributed to the intensified dryness in south China.
Highlights
Variations in forest net primary productivity (NPP) reflects the combined effects of key climate variables on ecosystem structure and function, especially on the carbon cycle
The percentage area at high risk was predicted to increase from 5.39% (2021–2050) to 27.62% (2071–2099) under RCP8.5
We modeled NPP by modifying the atmospheric evaporative demand (AED) sub-model in the Lund–Potsdam–Jena Dynamic Global Vegetation Model (LPJ-DGVM), which was driven by a set of general circulation models (GCMs) with representative concentration pathways (RCPs) that covered the period 1981–2100
Summary
Variations in forest net primary productivity (NPP) reflects the combined effects of key climate variables on ecosystem structure and function, especially on the carbon cycle. Climate change risk to forests was mostly concentrated in southern subtropical and tropical regions, generally significant under high emission scenario of RCP8.5, which was mainly attributed to the intensified dryness in south China. Other factors such as drought, heat waves, wildfire, and insect disturbances may cause extensive reductions in NPP in some forests[26,27,28,29,30,31] Of these factors, drought or dryness have often resulted from increases in the atmospheric evaporative demand (AED) and soil water deficit, and from decreases in precipitation. There is risk if the reduction in NPP caused by the overall effects of climate change indicates possible damage or corruption, such as poor vegetation coverage, the expansion of desertification[38] and the decline of ecosystem services ability[39], other than the lack of vegetation productivity and biomass. There have been few quantitative assessments of the rates at which risk might change as regional mean temperatures increase
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