Climate Change Risk of Urban Growth and Land Use/Land Cover Conversion: An In-Depth Review of the Recent Research in Iran

Sorour Esfandeh,Afshin Danehkar,Marina Viorela Marcu,Abdolrassoul Salmanmahiny,Seyed Mohammad Moein Sadeghi

doi:10.3390/su14010338

Abstract

This research is the first literature review of the past three decades’ studies on the effects of urban development and land use/land cover (LULC) change on Iran’s climate change. For this purpose, 67 articles were found, evaluated, and classified according to the spatial and temporal scale, case study, period, data type, climatic factor, methodology, and meteorological data. Moreover, the reviewed literature methodologies were classified according to the purpose, method, and data source. According to the spatial-scale results, national- and city-level studies had the lowest and highest numbers, respectively. Tehran was the most case studies because Tehran is Iran’s capital and the largest metropolitan city. In terms of the temporal scale, studies predicting future changes (urban development and climate change) included 5% of the total literature. Satellite images were the most applied data in the reviewed literature (58%). Overall, 79% of the studies used temperature-related factors to explain the climatic impacts of urban growth and LULC conversion. Spatial modeling with 52% publications was the most used method, while numerical modeling with 12% studies was the least used method. This review showed broad study gaps in applying numerical models, neighborhood scales, urban micro-scale parameters, and long-term projections forecasts due to rapid urban development in Iran compared to the rest of the world. Therefore, our synthesis will assist researchers in facilitating better design for future studies in Iran and similar countries.

Highlights

Introduction iationsOne significant consequence of the increasing human population and urbanization tendency is the global-scale challenge of uncontrolled urban expansion
Due to its population size, large extent, and severe air pollution problem, more accurate and detailed prediction is highly needed to be performed in Tehran [108]
This study is the first attempt at conducting a thorough review relating to the strengths and weaknesses of published articles on the effects of urban growth and land use/land cover (LULC) change on climate change in Iran

Summary

Introduction

One significant consequence of the increasing human population and urbanization tendency is the global-scale challenge of uncontrolled urban expansion. The world’s urban population was about 30% in 1950 and surpassed 50% in 2014. Regional, and global climate through two main mechanisms. Changes in urban characteristics, such as increasing urban heat, affect the local temperature, atmospheric flows, and the intensity and frequency of lightning strikes. These changes alter the precipitation pattern toward torrential rains and storms during warm seasons and incur severe, costly damages. Temperature changes may reduce the urban environments’ climate comfort and incur extra per capita expenditures due to increasing energy consumption (electricity and water) in warm months.

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