Abstract
Anthropogenic activity is changing Earth's climate and ecosystems in ways that are potentially dangerous and disruptive to humans. Greenhouse gas concentrations in the atmosphere continue to rise, ensuring that these changes will be felt for centuries beyond 2100, the current benchmark for projection. Estimating the effects of past, current, and potential future emissions to only 2100 is therefore short-sighted. Critical problems for food production and climate-forced human migration are projected to arise well before 2100, raising questions regarding the habitability of some regions of the Earth after the turn of the century. To highlight the need for more distant horizon scanning, we model climate change to 2500 under a suite of emission scenarios and quantify associated projections of crop viability and heat stress. Together, our projections show global climate impacts increase significantly after 2100 without rapid mitigation. As a result, we argue that projections of climate and its effects on human well-being and associated governance and policy must be framed beyond 2100.
Highlights
Using our clito experience strong heat stress in the future under RCP4.5 mate projections and the Crop Ecological Requirements Database and RCP6.0 scenarios, with affected areas spreading into more (Ecocrop) of FAO (Food and Agriculture Organization (FAO), 2016), temperate zones, such as the Mediterranean, by the end of the we model how climate change beyond 2100 may affect the global century
By 2500 under RCP6.0, the proportion of the year exhibiting very crops (Food and Agriculture Organization, 2016): cassava, maize, strong heat stress is greater than 50% in much of Africa, the Amazon, potato, rice, sorghum, soybean, sweet potato, taro, wheat, and yam the Arabian Peninsula, Southeast Asia, the Maritime Continent, (SI Methods)
Our investigations consider only precipitation and and northern Australia. Today these regions experitemperature on crop viability and provide a skeleton framework for ence this level of heat stress between 0% (Maritime Continent) and integrating more sophisticated crop growth measures under pro
Summary
Projected changes in the area suitable for crop growth globally relative to the pre-Industrial (1851–1899). (c) Projected changes in latitude at which crops can be grown in the Northern Hemisphere relative to the pre-Industrial (1851–1899). Projected changes in the area suitable for crop growth globally relative to the pre-Industrial (1851–1899). Our analyses suggest declines in suitable growth regions and these regions to highlight the profound changes they may face under shifts in where crops can be grown globally with climate change a plausible medium- to high-emission scenario (RCP6.0) (Hausfather (Figure 4). Declines in suitable regions for crop growth are the dominant pattern projected under future emission scenarios, but a seasonal climate approaches levels that are physically stressful for humans and many other species. The Amazon Basin is home to one-third of Earth's known species only crops consistently projected to maintain or gain suitable (Heckenberger et al, 2007) and currently serves as a carbon sink area under RCP6.0 by 2500 across crop- growth calibrations for roughly 7% of anthropogenic CO2 emissions
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