Abstract

Early climate change ideas warned of widespread species extinctions. As scientists have probed more deeply into species responses, a more nuanced perspective emerged indicating that some species may persist in microrefugia (refugia), including in mountainous terrain. Refugia are habitats that buffer climate changes and allow species to persist in—and to potentially expand under—changing environmental conditions. While climate and species interactions in refugia have been noted as sources of uncertainty, land management practices and disturbances, such as wildland fire, should also be considered when assessing any given refugium. Our landscape scale study suggests that cold-air pools, an important type of small-scale refugia, have unique fire occurrence, frequency, and severity patterns in frequent-fire mixed conifer forests of California’s Sierra Nevada: cold-air pool refugia have less fire and if it occurs, it is lower severity. Therefore, individuals and small populations are less likely to be extirpated by fire. Active management, such as restoration and fuels treatments for climate change adaptation, may be required to maintain these distinctive and potentially important refugia.

Highlights

  • Models of climate change impacts predicted widespread species extinctions as the rate of climate change outpaced the ability of plants and animals to migrate and track suitable climate [1,2,3]

  • The heterogeneous conditions created by complex montane topography create local areas, refugia, where aspects of current climate may be maintained within the region for more than 100 years during climate change [6,11]

  • In this paper we focus on cold‐air pool refugia (CAPs), a particular example of climatic refugia biological refugia for some taxa

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Summary

Introduction

Models of climate change impacts predicted widespread species extinctions as the rate of climate change outpaced the ability of plants and animals to migrate and track suitable climate [1,2,3]. Subsequent investigations suggest a more nuanced perspective, indicating that while species extinctions may still be dramatic, some species are likely to persist in microrefugia (referred to hereafter as refugia), including in mountainous terrain [4,5,6,7,8,9,10]. As the ice sheets retreated following the last ice age, these refugia are believed to have played an integral role in the rapid expansion of many species by providing source propagules for rapid species migration [8,9,10,12,13,14]. Keppel et al.’s (2011) biological definition of refugia is “habitats that components of biodiversity retreat to, persist in and can potentially expand from under changing environmental conditions.”

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