Abstract
Amplified climate warming has led to permafrost degradation and a shortening of the winter season, both impacting cost-effective overland travel across the Arctic. Here we use, for the first time, four state-of-the-art Land Surface Models that explicitly consider ground freezing states, forced by a subset of bias-adjusted CMIP5 General Circulation Models to estimate the impact of different global warming scenarios (RCP2.6, 6.0, 8.5) on two modes of winter travel: overland travel days (OTDs) and ice road construction days (IRCDs). We show that OTDs decrease by on average −13% in the near future (2021–2050) and between −15% (RCP2.6) and −40% (RCP8.5) in the far future (2070–2099) compared to the reference period (1971–2000) when 173 d yr−1 are simulated across the Pan-Arctic. Regionally, we identified Eastern Siberia (Sakha (Yakutia), Khabarovsk Krai, Magadan Oblast) to be most resilient to climate change, while Alaska (USA), the Northwestern Russian regions (Yamalo, Arkhangelsk Oblast, Nenets, Komi, Khanty-Mansiy), Northern Europe and Chukotka are highly vulnerable. The change in OTDs is most pronounced during the shoulder season, particularly in autumn. The IRCDs reduce on average twice as much as the OTDs under all climate scenarios resulting in shorter operational duration. The results of the low-end global warming scenario (RCP2.6) emphasize that stringent climate mitigation policies have the potential to reduce the impact of climate change on winter mobility in the second half of the 21st century. Nevertheless, even under RCP2.6, our results suggest substantially reduced winter overland travel implying a severe threat to livelihoods of remote communities and increasing costs for resource exploration and transport across the Arctic.
Highlights
The relatively pristine permafrost landscapes in the Arctic are undergoing profound changes due to increased socio-economic development (Orians et al 2003, Raynolds et al 2014) combined with amplified climate warming (IPCC 2019)
We find that climate change will considerably impact winter overland travel across the Pan-Arctic as consistently simulated by our multi-model ensemble
In the far future (2070–2099), overland travel days (OTDs) reduce by −15% under RCP2.6 and up to −40% under RCP8.5
Summary
The relatively pristine permafrost landscapes in the Arctic are undergoing profound changes due to increased socio-economic development (Orians et al 2003, Raynolds et al 2014) combined with amplified climate warming (IPCC 2019). Permafrost degradation has strong implications for existing infrastructure (Linden 2000, Shiklomanov et al 2017, Hjort et al 2018) including overland transportation systems and winter roads (Stephenson et al 2011, Hori et al 2018). Overland travel in the Arctic is most cost effective and least environmentally damaging during winter when the ground (active layer) and inland lake and river surfaces are frozen and snow covered (Forbes 1992). Frozen ground provides a hard surface for vehicles to travel across the otherwise boggy tundra environment. Winter mobility is crucial for infrastructure development and maintenance, for natural resource exploration and extraction, and for supplying remote communities. Alternative transportation routes, such as air travel, are associated with much higher costs. Not having occurred in winter, the Norilsk fuel spill during which 20 000 tons of diesel contaminated the tundra at the end of May 2020 dramatically showcased the vulnerability (Nechepurenko 2020)
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