Climate change reduces the natural range of African wild loquat (Uapaca kirkiana Müll. Arg., Phyllanthaceae) in south-central Africa

Abstract

Climate change is predicted to threaten biodiversity and the distribution and abundance of species. In Africa and other developing regions, changing distributions and abundances of tree species may have profound effects on livelihoods. The aims of the study were to determine the current continuous distribution of African wild loquat (Uapaca kirkiana Mull. Arg., Phyllanthaceae) and to predict the impact of climate change on the future distribution of the species. A maximum entropy method (Maxent) was used to generate models of the current distribution and for projections under different representative concentration pathways (RCPs). After resampling and correlation analysis, models were generated using 84 occurrence records and nine environmental variables. Results showed that the species has a current continuous distribution in the range of miombo woodlands of south-central Africa, in parts of Angola, southern Democratic Republic of Congo, Malawi, Mozambique, Tanzania, Zimbabwe and Zambia. Projections showed suitable habitat contracting under most RCPs in 2050 and 2070. Range contraction was especially acute under a scenario of no mitigation of greenhouse gas emission, that is RCP8.5. In 2050, the range of the species was forecasted to contract by − 13.9% (RCP2.6), − 5.8% (RCP4.5) and − 14.9% (RCP8.5), with a slight expansion of 1.3% under RCP6.0. In 2070, the range was forecasted to contract by − 17.6% (RCP2.6), − 16.4% (RCP4.5), − 3.7% (RCP6.0) and − 20.6% (RCP8.5). Domestication and establishment in protected areas are some options to mitigate against the forecasted contraction of the natural range of the species.