Abstract
Climate change is impacting ecosystems worldwide. Estuaries are diverse and important aquatic ecosystems; and yet until now we have lacked information on the response of estuaries to climate change. Here we present data from a twelve-year monitoring program, involving 6200 observations of 166 estuaries along >1100 kilometres of the Australian coastline encompassing all estuary morphologies. Estuary temperatures increased by 2.16 °C on average over 12 years, at a rate of 0.2 °C year−1, with waters acidifying at a rate of 0.09 pH units and freshening at 0.086 PSU year−1. The response of estuaries to climate change is dependent on their morphology. Lagoons and rivers are warming and acidifying at the fastest rate because of shallow average depths and limited oceanic exchange. The changes measured are an order of magnitude faster than predicted by global ocean and atmospheric models, indicating that existing global models may not be useful to predict change in estuaries.
Highlights
IntroductionLarge riverine estuaries and bays are warming in North America, e.g. Hudson River[6,7], Chesapeake Bay[8], Woods Hole[9], Narrow River[10] and Europe, North[11] and Mediterranean Seas[12]
Rivers were the second fastest and warmed by 0.248 °C year−1, followed by Back Dune Lagoons (BDLs, 0.117 °C year−1) and lakes (0.0954 °C year−1) that warmed at a similar rate to each other (Table 2)
Time measured as days since sampling began was the strongest driver followed by latitude of the estuary (Fig. 2a)
Summary
Large riverine estuaries and bays are warming in North America, e.g. Hudson River[6,7], Chesapeake Bay[8], Woods Hole[9], Narrow River[10] and Europe, North[11] and Mediterranean Seas[12] While this knowledge is useful, we currently lack detailed information on the impact of global change in a diverse range of morphological estuary types across continental and global regions. Creeks, lagoons and BDLs are more numerous than lakes and rivers and provide a wide range of exposed and shallow-water habitats vital to the functioning of coastal ecosystems[3] Many of these estuaries contain protected habitats and are important for aquatic and avian biodiversity. We present the results from a 12-year monitoring study investigating the summer temperature, pH and salinity of 166 estuaries along
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