Climate Change Projections of Extreme Temperatures for the Iberian Peninsula

Carolina Viceto,Alfredo Rocha,Susana Cardoso Pereira

doi:10.3390/atmos10050229

Abstract

The comprehensive characterization of heat waves and extreme hot days is fundamental for policymakers due to its vast implications for human health. This study evaluates extreme temperature changes over the Iberian Peninsula for the present climate and future projections, considering extreme temperature indices, cold/heat waves, and a recovery factor, using the Weather Research and Forecasting model. The projected temperatures show an increase of over 6 °C. An increase in the number of summer days and tropical nights and a decrease in frost days is expected. The number of heat waves and their duration and intensity are expected to increase. The number of heat wave days are expected to increase, with much of the average summer season being under heat wave conditions. The recovery factor is expected to decrease. Cold spells are projected to decrease in terms of number, intensity, duration, and number of spell days, whereas the recovery factor is expected to increase. Heat wave analysis was combined with maximum temperature thresholds to isolate extreme heat waves. The results show an increase in extreme heat wave days, with regions experiencing over 10 heat wave days with maximum temperature surpassing 45 °C for the long-term future.

Highlights

IntroductionThe main concern with the evaluation of climate change impacts is the associated potential change in climate variability and, in extreme events [1]
Climate change is one of the major threats of the 21st century
Afterwards, we focused on the change in extreme temperatures, which was evaluated by the mean differences of maximum and minimum temperature, climate change indices, heat waves, cold spells, and their recovery factor

Summary

Introduction

The main concern with the evaluation of climate change impacts is the associated potential change in climate variability and, in extreme events [1]. Extreme events are defined as the tails of the distribution of a weather variable, which occur with low frequency, that is, the values located away from the mean or median value of the distribution [2]. Examples are extreme temperature events (heat waves, cold spells, and the number of days exceeding different threshold temperatures) and extreme precipitation events (heavy rain and droughts). These events are responsible for significant impacts on both human society and the natural environment, for instance, human morbidity/mortality and economic losses [3,4].

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Conclusion