Abstract
The projected impacts of climate change will further compromise social-economic developments in developing countries, which are already overstretched by the challenges of increasing climate variability. Lessening the impacts and sustaining socio-economic development requires informed, appropriate and adequate adaptation strategies that are scientifically sound and robust. It is therefore important to conduct scientific research to enhance understanding of the possible pathways of future climate change under different emission scenarios as pre-requisite inputs for development of effective adaptation strategies. In this study, climate change projections for Tanzania is carried out using outputs of high resolution Regional Climate Models (RCMs) from the Coordinated Regional Climate Downscaling Experiment program (CORDEX). Simulated daily rainfall, minimum and maximum temperatures for historical climate (1971-2000) and future climate projection (2011-2100) under two Representative Concentration Pathways (RCPs): RCP 8.5 and RCP 4.5 are compared. The comparison is based on determining the departure of present (2011-2040), mid (2041-2070) and end (2071-2100) centuries climate conditions from historical (1971-2000) climate condition. Results indicate warmer future, especially over the highlands. In comparison with other regions, Coastal regions are projected to have a relatively lower increase in temperatures and relatively higher increase in rainfall under both RCP 8.5 and RCP 4.5 emission scenarios. The western regions and southwestern highlands are projected to have a future with decreased rainfall under both RCP 8.5 and RCP 4.5 emission scenarios.
Highlights
Climate change is a threat to the survival of the human being as it has significant impacts on the environment, crop production, water resources, and livestock production (Araya et al, 2015)
The analysis of climate projection based on individual climate model is subject to an uncertainty that arises from Regional Climate Model (RCM) or from the driving General Circulation Model (GCM)
To account for the uncertainties the ensemble average of 5 climate model members (HIRHAM5 and RACMO22T both forced by ICHEC-EC-EARTH, RCA4 forced by three GCMs: MPI-M-MPI-ESM-LR, CNRMCERFACSCNRM-CM5, and ICHEC-EC-EARTH) was created and used for analysis
Summary
Climate change is a threat to the survival of the human being as it has significant impacts on the environment, crop production, water resources, and livestock production (Araya et al, 2015). Projected increase in temperature is expected to influence wilting and drying of plants, multiplication of pest, weeds, and diseases that would result in increased costs of crop production and failures in crop yields (United Republic of Tanzania, 2003). The projected increase in rainfall is likely to influence nutrient leaching, washing away of the topsoil and water logging, pests, disease outbreaks and infrastructure damage that would result into low crop yields and disruption of food supply chain (United Republic of Tanzania, 2003; IPCC, 2007, 2013). Agrawala et al (2003) performed a more comprehensive study by reviewing climate trends and scenarios in Tanzania based on results from seventeen GCMs and found that temperatures over the country will increase by up to 2.2◦C by 2100 with higher increases up to 2.6◦C in June to August Several studies (Mwandosya et al, 1998; Agrawala et al, 2003; de Wit and Stankiewicz, 2006; Ehrhart and Twena, 2006; Strzepek and McCluskey, 2006; Jack, 2010; Munishi et al, 2010; Ahmed et al, 2011; Arndt et al, 2011 and Rowhani et al, 2011; Wambura et al, 2014; Conway et al, 2017) have used the General Circulation Models (GCMs) to produce future climate change in Tanzania. Mwandosya et al (1998) indicated that future rainfall over southwestern highlands of Tanzania will be decreased, while Northeastern highlands and the Lake Victoria basin will experience a slight increase in rainfall. Ahmed et al (2011) used outputs from the GCMs to produce changes in temperatures and found that January to June growing season temperatures in the early Twenty-First century are going to be higher than in the late Twentieth century by 0.2–1.11◦C should greenhouse gas concentration continues to rise. Agrawala et al (2003) performed a more comprehensive study by reviewing climate trends and scenarios in Tanzania based on results from seventeen GCMs and found that temperatures over the country will increase by up to 2.2◦C by 2100 with higher increases up to 2.6◦C in June to August
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