Climate change projections for Greece in the 21st century from high-resolution EURO-CORDEX RCM simulations

Abstract

We present an updated assessment of projected climate change over Greece in the near future and at the end of the 21st century, focusing on near surface temperature, precipitation, and related heat (Hot Days and Tropical Nights), cold (Frost Days), and drought (Consecutive Dry Days) climate indices. The analysis is based on an ensemble of 11 high-resolution EURO-CORDEX regional climate model (RCM) simulations covering the historical period 1950–2005 and the future period 2006–2100 under the influence of a strong, a moderate, and a no mitigation Representative Concentration Pathway (RCP2.6, RCP4.5 and RCP8.5). The statistical robustness of climate change signal is also assessed. Our results strongly point towards a warmer future for Greece under all the examined RCPs. Under RCP8.5, annual near surface temperature is projected to increase on average by 1.6 °C in the near future and 4.3 °C at the end of the century. As a consequence of warming, the number of hot days and tropical nights in a year is projected to increase significantly and the number of frost days to decrease. In addition, the future will be possibly drier. Statistically robust results for precipitation changes are found only for the end-of-the-century period under RCP8.5. Precipitation is generally projected to decrease under RCP8.5 by −16% and the number of consecutive dry days in a year to increase by 15.4 days (30%) at the end of the century.