Climate change projections coupled with microclimatic modelling for supporting decision making in viticulture

Abstract

Understanding the microclimate dynamics within vineyard living labs is paramount for sustainable and optimised grape production. This study delves into a comprehensive approach, using a microclimate NicheMapR model, local station hourly data, ERA5 land data, and a high-resolution Digital Elevation Model to refine microclimate analyses. The key innovation lies in achieving an unprecedented 10-meter spatial resolution of climate variables, providing a perspective on the intricate interplay of climatic variables within each living lab. The initial phase of the study involves the incorporation of local station data to perform bias correction on ERA5 land data, achieved through quantile mapping techniques. This bias-corrected dataset serves as a robust foundation for subsequent analyses, ensuring that the microclimate model accurately reflects the unique characteristics of the vine living labs under study. Integrating a high-resolution DEM further enhances spatial precision, capturing subtle variations in terrain that can profoundly impact local microclimates, such as shade and horizon angles. Additionally, the 10-meter spatial resolution output from the microclimate model is used to bias correct EURO-CORDEX ensemble models, providing the development of future climatic scenarios. This approach ensures that the future projections are not only regionally specific but also representative of each living lab. An important output of the research is the determination of future climate extreme indices and bioclimatic indices specifically designed for viticulture. By analysing the ensemble models at the 10-meter scale, the study aims to provide invaluable insights into potential shifts in temperature extremes, precipitation patterns, and other climatic variables critical to grape cultivation within a specific living lab. In conclusion, this study presents a holistic and forward-looking approach to microclimate analysis in vine living labs. By integrating advanced geospatial technologies, bias-corrected ERA5 land data, high-resolution DEMs, and the microclimate NicheMapR model, this research expands the knowledge of present microclimates and provides viticulturists with insights into future climate scenarios.