Abstract
An analysis was conducted to estimate the agro-climatic changes, which would incur due to projected climate change scenarios on sugarcane cultivation in Sevanagala, Sri Lanka over the next 70 years. The general circulation model developed by the Beijing Meteorological Centre was used with Representative Concentration Pathways scenario 6.0 to simulate the climate variables of maximum and minimum temperatures, and rainfall for years 2030, 2050, and 2090. The goodness of fit test was conducted against simulated and observed data using 10-year dataset from 2010 to 2019. The future climate was compared using a baseline data set, which was generated by averaging 10 years of data from 2010 to 2019. The results indicated that by 2090, the average annual minimum and maximum temperatures would increase by 1.2°C and 1.4°C, respectively. However, annual maximum and minimum temperatures may remain within the favourable range for sugarcane cultivation. The annual rainfall is expected to increase by 6.0% in 2090 relative to baseline values. The results demonstrated the stability of the effective rainfall. The evapotranspiration would increase by 3.7% by the year 2090 relative to baseline values. The soil moisture deficits for sugarcane planted in the Yala and Maha planting seasons are also expected to increase by 6.7% and 12.6%, respectively in 2090. As a result of increased evapotranspiration, additional irrigation might be needed to maintain the productivity of sugarcane cultivation indicating the climate-related risks for future rain-fed sugarcane cultivations in Sevanagala, Sri Lanka.
Highlights
The impact of global climate change on crop production is mainly due to changes in rainfall and temperature (Abeysingha et al 2020)
Climate change has increased the risk of frequent extreme weather events such as drought, high temperatures, low rainfall, and intense floods, which can be threatened on crop production (Meyer et al 2011; Zhao and Li 2015)
The present paper discusses the effect of climate changes on temperature, evapo transpiration, rainfall and soil moisture deficit levels in rain-fed sugarcane plantations in Sevanagala, Sri Lanka for the 70 years period
Summary
The impact of global climate change on crop production is mainly due to changes in rainfall and temperature (Abeysingha et al 2020). The increase of maximum temperature due to climate change would proportionally increase the evapotranspiration rate (Kang et al 2009), thereby rapidly reduce the available water content in the root zone soil This scenario will have a high impact on rain-fed cultivation, where soil moisture refills only by the rainfall. It is necessary to determine the climate change impact on the agro-climate of rain-fed sugarcane producing area in Sri Lanka to develop possible adaptation strategies in advance to maintain economic competitiveness of the sugarcane cultivation. It helps to avoid further deterioration of productivity levels of sugarcane plantations and adapt policy decisions while finding of alternative pathways. The present paper discusses the effect of climate changes on temperature, evapo transpiration, rainfall and soil moisture deficit levels in rain-fed sugarcane plantations in Sevanagala, Sri Lanka for the 70 years period
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