Abstract
The decision support tool viz. SDSM (Statistical Downscaling Model) was used to downscale climate data of future years for Kashmir province of Jammu & Kashmir state. The 21st century projected data for the A1B scenario was adjusted by using observed climatic data recorded during the period 1985-2015 for the region. The data from the same period was taken as the baseline for the analysis. This data was thereon analyzed for monthly, seasonal, cropping season and annual periods to enumerate the variation of maximum temperature, minimum temperature and precipitation in Kashmir valley of Jammu & Kashmir state in the 21st century. The modelled data obtained exhibited no significant change in maximum and minimum temperature for the period 2021-2050 but for the same period increase in annual precipitation was exhibited. For the period2051-2100, decreasing trend of annual temperature was exhibited whereas for annual precipitation, an increasing trend was exhibited.
Highlights
Throughout the previous century, rise in temperature and surge in CO2 concentration because of innumerable factors comprising alteration land usage pattern[4] and greenhouse gas (GHG) emanations fromagricultural and industrial zone[8], have caused variations in the earth’s climate
The SDSM predictors were downloaded for the study area from the CanadianClimate Impacts Scenarios Group (CCISC)
The calculated correction factor was further applied to the modelled data for the period 2021-2100 to correct it.This corrected modelled climatic data was the studied on monthly, seasonal, cropping season and yearly basis to measure the variations in maximum temperature, minimum temperature and precipitation as compared to reference period
Summary
Throughout the previous century, rise in temperature and surge in CO2 concentration because of innumerable factors comprising alteration land usage pattern[4] and greenhouse gas (GHG) emanations fromagricultural and industrial zone[8], have caused variations in the earth’s climate. This surge in the GHG’s emanationis expected to impact the earth’s temperature, precipitation, pattern of storms and sea levels[3,1,6]. Global temperatures have shown a warming up tendency of 0.87°C during 1880-2015 owing to rise in anthropogenic activities. An increasing trend in annual maximum and minimum temperature as well as precipitation has been predicted for the region under SRES A2 Scenario[9]
Sign-in/Register to view highlights & summary Sign-in/Register to access full text options 
Talk to us
Join us for a 30 min session where you can share your feedback and ask us any queries you have
Schedule a callDisclaimer: All third-party content on this website/platform is and will remain the property of their respective owners and is provided on "as is" basis without any warranties, express or implied. Use of third-party content does not indicate any affiliation, sponsorship with or endorsement by them. Any references to third-party content is to identify the corresponding services and shall be considered fair use under The CopyrightLaw.
