Climate Change: Potential Effects on Demands for US Military Humanitarian Assistance and Disaster Response

Abstract

Abstract : How will climate change affect military humanitarian and disaster response operations? Answering this question requires answering a number of other, related, questions. How will climate change affect the frequency, type, and nature of disasters and humanitarian emergencies? How will pressures from climate change affect social and economic factors that determine the security situation at the scene of the response? What types of disasters do US military forces respond to today, and how do they compare with those types of disaster most affected by climate change? Why does the US commit military forces to a disaster response operation? And what unique capabilities do they bring when they arrive? To answer these questions, we examined the climate literature in order to determine projected changes in frequency, intensity, and location of large-scale events. We also examined the type, location, and nature of US military commitments, by using extensive databases of past US response operations. Finally, we examined the possible ways in which climate change might decrease stability in already-marginal countries, by using existing measures of country stability and projections of future climate impacts on fragile nations.