Abstract
FORSUM, a forest succession model of the JABOWA/FORET type was applied to simulate possible impacts of environmental changes on subalpine forest ecosystems. The model used is based on approaches of Botkin (1), Shugart (2) and Kienast (3). It has been improved by implementing soil water movement calculations based on a user-defined one-dimensional nonhomogeneous soil profile. The scenarios used are based on climate change predictions of GCM’s. A temperature increase of 3° C would cause important changes in species composition. Deciduous trees would invade into today’s subalpine belt. Various conifers would be outcompeted in this zone and would migrate into today’s alpine zone which would become afforested. Changes of vegetation patterns are predicted with both models but the influence of a global warming and a precipitation decrease on total biomass production seems to be overestimated by FORECE (3). To improve the reliability of these predictions, information about seed dispersal rates (horizontal and vertical) and seed availability should be implemented in these models.
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