Abstract
BackgroundBioclimatic variables play an integral part in the life-cycle of Ctenocephalides felis, the most common flea found on companion animals. It is essential that we understand the effects of climate on C. felis distribution as fleas are a major veterinary and public health concern. This study investigated the current distribution of C. felis in Australia and future projections based on climate modelling.ResultsTyping of C. felis was undertaken using the cytochrome c oxidase subunit 1 (cox1) mitochondrial DNA (mtDNA) region and current distribution of haplotypes was mapped by Maximum Entropy (Maxent) niche modelling. All C. felis haplotypes have been predicted to persist in environments along the eastern and southern coastlines of Australia and distinct ecological niches were observed for two C. felis haplogroups. Clade ‘Cairns’ haplogroup thrives under the northern coastal tropical conditions whilst Clade ‘Sydney’ haplogroup persists in temperate climates along the eastern and southern coasts. The model was then used to predict areas that are projected to have suitable climatic conditions for these haplogroups in 2050 and 2070 under the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) climate change scenarios. Under all IPCC Representative Concentration Pathways (RCP) climate change scenarios, the geographical range of all haplotypes was reduced by 5.59–42.21% in 2050 and 27.08–58.82% by 2070. The ranges of all clades were predicted to shift south along the eastern coastline.ConclusionsAs future temperatures exceed critical threshold temperatures for C. felis development in the northern tropical areas, Clade ‘Cairns’ haplogroup is predicted to shift south along the coastline and possibly outcompete the temperate haplogroup in these areas. If C. felis haplogroups possess distinct climatic niches it suggests a potential for these to be biologically distinct and have differing developmental rates and vector capabilities.
Highlights
Bioclimatic variables play an integral part in the life-cycle of Ctenocephalides felis, the most common flea found on companion animals
Ctenocephalides felis (Siphonaptera: Pulicidae), commonly known as the cat flea, is the most common flea found on companion animals in Australia [1, 2]
The aim of this study is to model if C. felis distribution in Australia will be affected by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) climate change scenarios
Summary
Bioclimatic variables play an integral part in the life-cycle of Ctenocephalides felis, the most common flea found on companion animals. As C. felis imposes health risks to humans and domestic animals as a biological vector, it is important to understand and predict both current and future suitable. In a predictive model study, the distribution of C. felis in Spain was predicted to expand to newly suitable habitats as a result of climate change [10]. This could be the circumstance in Australia, where the distribution of C. felis subpopulations may shift to newly suitable habitats Ecological niche modelling such as the Maximum Entropy (Maxent) model [8, 11] in epidemiology is a useful tool as it can assess the relative importance of bioclimatic variables and use these factors to predict changes in the distribution of parasites and their pathogens over time [12]
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