Abstract
The shipping sector is seeking options to reduce its emissions of greenhouse gases (GHGs) and achieve ambitious climate change mitigation goals. Unlike short-sea shipping that can rely on electrification of coastal vessels, drop-in biofuels are among the most promising options for deep-sea shipping decarbonization. However, environmental sustainability analyses of marine biofuels are limited, and usually do not include the influence of future changes in the background energy system nor the climatic effects of near-term climate forcers (NTCFs). In our study, we assess the climate change mitigation potential of various marine biofuels produced from forest residues in Norway (a country with ambitious plans for emission reduction from shipping) using a prospective life-cycle assessment (LCA) where the projected trends in the energy and transport sectors are integrated with improvements in the biofuel value chain for the next decades (2030–2050). Relative to fossil-based alternatives, climate mitigation potentials of biofuels range from 65% to 85% with short-term (GWP20) and to 78%–87% with long-term (GTP100) climate impacts. The inclusion of NTCFs reduces the mitigation benefits of biofuels in the short term, while it slightly increases them in the long term. The explicit modeling of technology and socio-economic changes under future policy scenarios indicates a reduction in the climate impacts of biofuels by up to 54% in 2050 when compared to the current situation. The amount of residues potentially available in Norway is sufficient to meet the present demand for liquid fuels in deep-sea shipping, thus providing yearly climate mitigation of 0.9–1.1 million tons of CO2-eq (equal to 6–7% of today's climate impacts from the entire transport sector in the country). Our analysis shows the large climate change mitigation potential of drop-in biofuels, and it provides new quantitative estimates that can help guiding a sustainability shift in the deep-sea shipping sector.
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