Climate change may induce connectivity loss and mountaintop extinction in Central American forests

Lukas Baumbach,Marc Hanewinkel,Rasoul Yousefpour,Dan L Warren

doi:10.1038/s42003-021-02359-9

Abstract

The tropical forests of Central America serve a pivotal role as biodiversity hotspots and provide ecosystem services securing human livelihood. However, climate change is expected to affect the species composition of forest ecosystems, lead to forest type transitions and trigger irrecoverable losses of habitat and biodiversity. Here, we investigate potential impacts of climate change on the environmental suitability of main plant functional types (PFTs) across Central America. Using a large database of occurrence records and physiological data, we classify tree species into trait-based groups and project their suitability under three representative concentration pathways (RCPs 2.6, 4.5 and 8.5) with an ensemble of state-of-the-art correlative modelling methods. Our results forecast transitions from wet towards generalist or dry forest PFTs for large parts of the study region. Moreover, suitable area for wet-adapted PFTs is projected to latitudinally diverge and lose connectivity, while expected upslope shifts of montane species point to high risks of mountaintop extinction. These findings underline the urgent need to safeguard the connectivity of habitats through biological corridors and extend protected areas in the identified transition hotspots.

Highlights

The tropical forests of Central America serve a pivotal role as biodiversity hotspots and provide ecosystem services securing human livelihood
According to Diffenbaugh and Giorgi[8], Central America counts among the global climate change hotspots in view of projected increasing mean temperatures, more frequent extreme temperature events and higher interannual precipitation variability
Central American forest ecosystems in particular serve a critical role as habitat for rare species and represent an increasingly popular destination for ecotourism

Summary

Introduction

The tropical forests of Central America serve a pivotal role as biodiversity hotspots and provide ecosystem services securing human livelihood. Suitable area for wet-adapted PFTs is projected to latitudinally diverge and lose connectivity, while expected upslope shifts of montane species point to high risks of mountaintop extinction. These findings underline the urgent need to safeguard the connectivity of habitats through biological corridors and extend protected areas in the identified transition hotspots. In conjunction with the high spatial heterogeneity of the landscape, distinct forest types have evolved, which feature tree species that are closely adapted to the local environmental conditions and follow specific resource use strategies Due to this high specialization and the scarcity of alternative habitats, tropical biodiversity is expected to be sensitive to climate change[16]. Range shifts of suitable habitat could lead to high risks of habitat connectivity loss or—following upslope shifts towards elevation peaks—mountaintop extinction[17]

Methods

Results

Discussion

Conclusion