Abstract
Subterranean ecosystems present ideal opportunities to study mechanisms underlying responses to changes in climate because species within them are often adapted to a largely constant temperature. We have characterized the thermal conditions of caves in the western Alps, and related these hypogean climate data to the occurrence of Troglohyphantes spiders (Araneae, Linyphiidae). Our data indicated that present distributions reflect Pleistocene glaciation events and also pointed to specific responses as a consequence of changes in temperature. Constant temperatures recorded inside caves provide an approximation of the mean annual temperature outside, thus we extended the results to a regional scale. We used ecological niche modeling to predict habitat suitability both in the Pleistocene and under future global warming scenarios. These analyses pointed toward a future decline in habitat suitability for subterranean spiders and the potential extinction of the most restricted endemic species. When compared with other species that live in confined habitats such as islands and mountains, we expect cave species to be as much, if not more, vulnerable to climate change.
Highlights
The potential impact of global climate change on a broad range of organisms occurring in different ecosystems and showing a very diverse pattern of distributions is well documented (Walther et al 2002, Parmesan and Yohe 2003, Parmesan 2006, Walther2010, Chen et al 2011, Dawson et al 2011, Bellard et al 2012)
We modelled presence/absence of Troglohyphantes spiders in relation to cave microclimate, past glacial dynamics and other cave features in order to assess their sensitivity to potential subterranean climatic variation induced by climate change
Range of Tint was highly collinear with past ice cover (ICE) and excluded from the analysis (Supplementary material Appendix 2, Fig. A2)
Summary
The potential impact of global climate change on a broad range of organisms occurring in different ecosystems and showing a very diverse pattern of distributions is well documented (Walther et al 2002, Parmesan and Yohe 2003, Parmesan 2006, Walther2010, Chen et al 2011, Dawson et al 2011, Bellard et al 2012). Among the range of subterranean taxa occurring in the Western Alps, we chose the cave-dwelling spiders Troglohyphantes (Araneae, Linyphiidae) as model organisms. The reliability of this model comes from empirical observations pointing out their preference for narrow, stable and cool microclimatic conditions (Deeleman-Reinhold 1978, Isaia and Pantini 2010, Isaia et al 2011, 2017, Mammola and Isaia 2016). Populations of Troglohyphantes are usually extremely structured from a genetic point of view, lacking shared haplotypes between caves and showing highly reduced dispersal ability (Mammola et al 2015a)
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