Abstract
Following its introduction from Asia to the USA, the Asian needle ant (Pachycondyla chinensis) is rapidly spreading into a wide range of habitats with great negative ecological affects. In addition, the species is a concern for human health because of its powerful, sometimes deadly, sting. Here, we assessed the potential of P. chinensis to spread further and to invade entirely new regions. We used species distribution models to assess suitable areas under current climatic conditions and in 2020, 2050 and 2080. With a consensus model, combining five different modelling techniques, three Global Circulation (climatic) Models and two CO2 emission scenarios, we generated world maps with suitable climatic conditions. Our models suggest that the species currently has a far greater potential distribution than its current exotic range, including large parts of the world landmass, including Northeast America, Southeast Asia and Southeast America. Climate change is predicted to greatly exacerbate the risk of P. chinensis invasion by increasing the suitable landmass by 64.9% worldwide, with large increases in Europe (+210.1%), Oceania (+75.1%), North America (+74.9%) and Asia (+62.7%). The results of our study suggest P. chinensis deserves increased attention, especially in the light of on-going climate change.
Highlights
Among the over 12,000 described species of ants [1], more than 200 species have established populations outside their native range [2]
3.33% of global landmass was predicted to be suitable for P. chinensis
The suitable range was unequally distributed among biogeographic regions, with the highest relative amount of suitable landmass found in North America (45%), followed by Asia (38%), South America (11%), Europe (3%) and Oceania (2%) (Fig. 2a)
Summary
Among the over 12,000 described species of ants [1], more than 200 species have established populations outside their native range [2]. A small subset of introduced ant species eventually becomes invasive, but these species can have a large impacts [4,5,6]. They can cause significant biodiversity losses, in particular as extremely efficient predators and competitors [7]. Invasive ants can disturb ecological networks, such as seed dispersal mutualism, thereby impairing ecosystem functioning [7]. They often damage agroecosystems and are a nuisance to humans by infesting estates, leading to high economic costs [9]
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