Climate Change is Likely to Alter Sheep and Goat Distributions in Mainland China

Yongxiang Zhang,Guogang Wang,Sicheng Zhao,Chengji Han,Yu Zhang

doi:10.3389/fenvs.2021.748734

Abstract

Climate change endangers food security worldwide, especially in developing countries. Livestock husbandry is one of the essential livelihoods for farmers and herders in remote arid and semiarid regions. However, it remains unclear how climate change will impact livestock husbandry in the future. This study collected sheep and goat distributions from the “gridded livestock of the world” (GLW) dataset for 1943 counties in Mainland China. Current climate data include precipitation and temperature from the National Meteorological Information Center (NMIC). We disentangled the effects of precipitation and temperature on current distributions of sheep and goats with the Bayesian Hierarchical Model by Integrated Nest Laplace Approximation (INLA). Further, we forecasted the potential sheep and goat distributions in 2030 and 2050 under Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP) scenarios. Our result showed that sheep distribution is significantly correlated with elevation, slope, market density, and highway distance, with absolute correlation coefficients ranging from 0.019 to 0.411. In addition to elevation, slope, and market density, goat distribution is also affected by gain production, with a correlation coefficient of 0.055. There is a dynamic correlation of temperature and precipitation with sheep and goat density. The sheep density distribution is predicted to increase in Northwest China, while the goat density distribution might increase in farming areas under climate change. Finally, this study suggests for the sheep and goat breeding industry to respond to climate change.

Highlights

Climate change threatens human society in the 21st century, especially on food security globally (Nemani, et al, 2003)
The findings of this study reveal that the sheep density distribution is highly correlated with elevation, slope, market density, and Highway distance, with absolute correlation coefficients ranging from 0.019 to 0.411
Slope, and market density, goat distribution is affected by gain production, with correlation coefficient of 0.055

Summary

Introduction

Climate change threatens human society in the 21st century, especially on food security globally (Nemani, et al, 2003). The per capita consumption of animal food, including mutton, milk, eggs, and beef, has increased by 160% in China, relative to the beginning of ‘Reform and Opening up’ (Han, et al, 2020). Climate change is another threat to China, where the warming rate is about twice the global average, and the flooding and droughts are becoming more frequent recently (Qian and Zhu, 2001). Livestock husbandry is important in food security and sustainable supply, especially under climate change. It needs to disentangle, evaluate, and predict how climate change will affect livestock husbandry in the future

Objectives

Methods

Results

Discussion

Conclusion