Abstract
Endemic and restricted-range species are considered to be particularly vulnerable to the effects of environmental change, which makes assessing likely climate change effects on geographic distributions of such species important to the development of integrated conservation strategies. Here, we determined distributional patterns for an endemic species of Dianthus (Dianthus polylepis) in the Irano-Turanian region using a maximum-entropy algorithm. In total, 70 occurrence points and 19 climatic variables were used to estimate the potential distributional area under current conditions and two future representative concentration pathway (RCP2.6 and RCP8.5) scenarios under seven general circulation models for 2050. Mean diurnal range, iso-thermality, minimum temperature of coldest quarter, and annual precipitation were major factors that appeared to structure the distribution of the species. Most current potential suitable areas were located in montane regions. Model transfers to future-climate scenarios displayed upward shifts in elevation and northward shifts geographically for the species. Our results can be used to define high-priority areas in the Irano-Turanian region for conservation management plans for this species and can offer a template for analyses of other endangered and threatened species in the region.
Highlights
Climate change is known as a major threat to species survival and the integrity of ecosystems worldwide [1,2]
70 unique occurrences were used for calibration and evaluation (Fig 2; S1 Table), which represents the full set of existing data regarding the occurrence of the species
The remaining five variables were subjected to the jackknife analysis, including mean diurnal range, Iso-thermality, mean temperature of the coldest quarter, annual precipitation, and precipitation of the driest quarter
Summary
Climate change is known as a major threat to species survival and the integrity of ecosystems worldwide [1,2]. Numerous studies have documented the effects of climate change on biodiversity during the twentieth century, including alterations in distribution and phenology, and increases in extinction risk for many species [3,4,5]. Given these changes, assessments of the impacts of climate change on species’ geographic distributions are necessary to reveal the extent of risk and to permit the design of appropriate conservation programs for species.
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