Climate change induced range shifts of Galliformes in China

Abstract

Climate change will cause range shifts of many species in the future. Galliformes might be particularly vulnerable to climate change, as they have low dispersal ability. Little is known about their possible responses to the future climate. We used a generalized additive model to predict the current and future ranges of all 63 Galliformes in China, based on a comprehensive species occurrence database and a combination of climate variables. Other environmental variables (e.g. elevation and human footprint index) were also considered, as well as the latitude and longitude of the occurrences. Principal component analysis was conducted to illustrate the association between environmental variables and Galliformes distributions. Using the Special Report on Emissions Scenarios (SRES) A2 climate change scenario for 2071-2100, we projected that 29 species would have range shifts over 50%, including 13 endemic species. Galliformes at higher elevation face greater range shifts. Northward shifts are greater than those in other directions. We suggest conservationists pay special attention to the 29 Galliformes that face extensive range shifts, especially the endemic species among them.