Abstract
Disturbances, both human-induced and natural, may re-shape ecosystems by influencing their composition, structure, and functional processes. Plateau zokor (Eospalax baileyi) is a typical subterranean rodent endemic to Qinghai-Tibetan Plateau (QTP), which are considered ecosystem engineers influencing the alpine ecosystem function. It is also regarded as a pest aggravating the degradation of overgrazed grassland and subject to regular control in QTP since 1950s. Climate change has been predicted in this region but little research exists exploring its impact on such subterranean rodent populations. Using plateau zokor as a model, through maximum entropy niche-based modeling (Maxent) and sustainable habitat models, we investigate zokor habitat dynamics driven by the future climate scenarios. Our models project that zokor suitable habitat will increase by 6.25% in 2050 in QTP. The predication indicated more threats in terms of grassland degradation as zokor suitable habitat will increase in 2050. Distribution of zokors will shift much more in their southern range with lower elevation compare to northern range with higher elevation. The estimated distance of shift ranges from 1 km to 94 km from current distribution. Grassland management should take into account such predictions in order to design mitigation measures to prevent further grassland degradation in QTP under climate change scenarios.
Highlights
Disturbances, both human-induced and natural, may reshape ecosystems by influencing their composition, structure, and functional processes [1, 2, 3]
Our model showed that currently Qinghai province provides the largest area of suitable habitat of plateau zokor (51.0%; 138223 km2) followed by Gansu province (35.9%; 96996 km2), Sinchuan province (7.6%; 20528 km2) and Xizang province (1.2%; 3428 km2) (Table 1)
Our result showed that a higher degree of shift of plateau zokor suitable habitat will occur at lower elevation compare to higher elevation (Fig 4)
Summary
Disturbances, both human-induced and natural, may reshape ecosystems by influencing their composition, structure, and functional processes [1, 2, 3]. Climate Change Expands Zokor Distribution natural disturbances affecting populations of organisms, has long been considered the greatest challenge to natural and biodiversity conservation [4, 5, 6]. It is widely believed that both historical and contemporary climate change affect populations of organisms. Current and future climate changes are predicted to potentially affect population size, survival and distribution of organisms [4, 9, 10]. Distributions of mountain biota are predicted to move toward poles or higher altitude as a result of global climate warming [1, 13]. Many insect species have shifted their ranges to higher latitudes and altitudes during recent climate warming [14]
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