Climate Change-Induced Conflicts in Pakistan: From National to Individual Level

Abstract

Climate change leading to migration and conflicts is observed in many parts of the world and it is becoming a potential future in Pakistan. Climate change refugees in Pakistan undergo victimization, in situ mitigation, or migration, all three of which have consequences. Direct and indirect security threats posed by climate change can cause great economic losses to Pakistan. Arguably, there is growing evidence of a relationship between climate change and conflicts in Pakistan. Resource depletion and overpopulation result in rural-to-urban migration along with occupational shifts. This unprecedented study explores whether there is a significant relationship between climate change and conflicts in Pakistan. It assesses the given association from national to individual level. The study uses both qualitative and quantitative methodologies to determine the relationship of climate change and conflict. The science of climate change and conflicts is mostly qualitative. The assessment based on surveying, visits, interviews, literature review, multidisciplinary assessment, and examination of the sites. Furthermore, the relationship or association was quantified based on some of the results. Statistical analysis was performed on the results of the study. Relationship between climate change, socioeconomics, and conflicts has been explored. Surveys and interviews significantly supported that the frequency of the disasters such as droughts, heatwaves, floods, and diseases has increased in the study area and significantly affects the lives of local communities. It was also highlighted that the majority of conflicts in the region are due to overpopulation, economic competition, acquisition of land and resources, and migration. It was found that some associations are statistically significant, while others are not. However, site examination and ground realities suggested that there is a high risk and potential for climate change-induced conflicts in the study area. Data presented in the study indicate that Pakistan has the highest risk value for conflicts and human exposure to these risks. There is a significant causal relationship between climate change, migration, and conflicts. Over population together with resource depletion serves as catalyzing factors for climate change migration and dispute. Data on the subject for Pakistan are absent or lacking. However, it can be significantly established that climate change-induced migration and the conflicts are reality in Pakistan, with potential to induct further economic losses in the future.