Climate change indications in short-period rainfall records from coastal India using trend analysis: a proposed framework

Abstract

Climate change has reportedly resulted in higher magnitude and frequency of extreme weather variables in many parts of India. Such studies pertaining to rainfall were based on long-period records, gridded rainfall data, or climate model projections, which have inherent uncertainties. As long-period records might not be available for many locations, gridded data or climate model analysis could be supplemented with the examination of short-period observations (< 20 years) for climate change effects. Detecting climate change effect from short-period high-resolution data has not yet been reported in the literature. For such exercise, this study proposes a framework based on trend analysis along with a demonstration case at a coastal site in India. Using the proposed analysis, indications of climate change are identified in short-period (January 1997 to December 2013: 17 years) high-resolution (hourly) rainfall data, which are subsequently corroborated with results from long-period (60-year) annual data from the site. This proof-of-concept study opens up an intriguing possibility of detecting climate change indications from short-period data, subject to validation on a larger scale with observations from more weather stations. The results could aid judicious decision-making regarding safety margins required in hydraulic design, to account for climate change effects. The methodology, if corroborated with more studies, might prove useful for detecting climate change effects from other short-period hydro-meteorological data as well.